The World’s Biggest Polluter, China, Is Ramping Up Renewables

On Wednesday, China’s National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) announced that the country would be investing in major renewable energy projects—developing new offshore wind farms and large scale clean energy bases that combine solar and wind farms.

It’s the latest move by the country, both a leader in renewable energy and the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gases, to make inroads in the green energy transition. 

China’s renewable energy dominance has been a long time coming, experts say. “Several of the clean energy industries were identified by the government several decades ago as strategic industries, where they really wanted to invest and position themselves as the global leader,” says Joanna Lewis, director of the science, technology, and international affairs program at Georgetown University. “This has really been a long-term strategic effort on behalf of the government to both put in place policies that would promote the deployment of renewables domestically within China, but also build up the industrial capacity to allow them to actually manufacture the technologies as well.”

What is China's climate target? 

In 2020, China announced that the country would reach peak carbon emissions by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. Since then, the country has been making strides towards adopting clean energy. That same year, the Chinese government pledged to double its renewable energy capacity by 2030—only to reach that goal six years ahead of schedule. And in 2024, the country led the world in energy transition investment, accounting for two-thirds of the $2.1 trillion spent globally last year on everything from power grids to electric transport, according to BloombergNEF. 

China currently produces 31% of its electricity from renewable sources including wind, solar, hydroelectricity, and geothermal. While the country is still heavily reliant on coal, estimates predict that by 2026 solar will overtake the fossil fuel as China’s leading energy source. 

The country is also expanding its reach and helping boost green energy adoption in other countries—most notably by shifting its Belt and Road Initiative, a global infrastructure development project, in developing nations to focus on clean energy and green infrastructure. “China wants to supply green energy goods for the world,” says Samantha Gross, director of the energy security and climate initiative at the Brookings Institution. “The push from the Chinese government to subsidize and really nurture its green energy industries wasn't just to serve the domestic market, it's to serve the global market.” 

China's renewable product exports grew by 35% from 2019 to 2023, and the country’s EV battery makers had a global market share of 60% in 2023 alone.

Why is China still building new coal plants?

Despite the country’s green transition, China is still heavily reliant on coal—the world’s biggest single source of greenhouse gas emissions per unit of energy. Alongside last year’s record green energy investments, China’s coal power construction hit a 10-year high in 2024—approving 66.7 GW of new coal-fired power capacity. (One gigawatt alone is the equivalent of a large coal power plant.) “China uses coal for a lot of its electricity generation because that's what they have,” says Gross, who notes that the fossil fuel helps ensure the country’s energy security amid increasing demand.

The coal industry is also a major economic hub in many Chinese provinces, presenting a sore spot for the country’s environmental goals. “There is this inherent conflict where China has some looming climate targets that it's going to need to meet in the next few years,” says Lewis. “And in order to meet those targets, you're going to need to see growth in renewables not only outpace growth in fossil fuels, but you're going to need to see a decline in the role that fossil fuels are playing in China's energy system.”

Earlier this year, the E.U. ambassador to China called for the country to stop building coal powered plants, but whether China is able to make the shift remains to be seen. Despite massive clean energy investments, the country’s emissions saw a 0.8% increase in 2024.

How does China’s climate actions compare to other countries?

In the U.S., China’s green energy push helped shape the Biden-era Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), a nearly $400 billion green industrial policy that aims to ramp up U.S. clean energy production. “[China] has spent a lot of money subsidizing and helping their electric vehicle industry, battery, solar panel, and they are world leaders in those industries as a result,” says Gross. “The Inflation Reduction Act was an attempt by Congress and the Biden Administration to to compete with that.” (The future of the IRA is currently up in the air, after President Trump signed an executive order on his first day in office freezing the program’s funding.)

While China is outpacing every other country in green energy investment, its continued reliance and investment in coal means that its not yet translating to reduced emissions. While China’s Nationally Determined Contribution under the Paris Accords—which lays out a country’s plan for how it will help meet the Paris goals—says that the country will “peak” emissions by 2030, it doesn’t specify a cap. In comparison, some countries, including the majority of the E.U. nations are beginning to see their emissions decrease. “Peak implies that emissions will stop going up, but it doesn't say at what level they'll stop going up,” says Lewis. 

Given that China is the world’s biggest emitter of greenhouse gasses, a firm commitment from the country to stabilize and then reduce emissions is the only way the world will be able to meet global climate goals. “If the peak is very high, it's going to make it very difficult for the world to limit emissions to a level that would hold warming at 1.5 degrees or even 2 degrees,” says Lewis. “We are not seeing enough signs—even with the really impressive build out of renewables—that China is getting on that path quickly enough.”