When Will China’s Economy Overtake the U.S.’s?

TOP FIVE COUNTRIES BY GLOBAL SHARE OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Based on purchasing-power parity

[The following text appears within a chart. Please see your hard copy for actual chart.]

1980

’85

’90

’95

2000

’05

’10

’15

’19

U.S.

CHINA

JAPAN

GERMANY

INDIA

0

5

10

15

20

2019 The year China’s economy will become larger than the U.S.’s (at about 18% of world share)

CHINA’S POPULATION WILL REMAIN POOR

$16,000 Projected per capita GDP in 2019, based on purchasing-power parity, compared with a projected $66,000 in the U.S.

ITS MANUFACTURING COSTS WILL RISE

102% Projected cost of manufacturing in China, compared with that in the U.S. in 2018, up from 96% of the U.S. cost now, in part because of rapidly rising wages

AND ITS GROWTH WILL NEGATIVELY IMPACT THE ENVIRONMENT

31% Projected share of global CO2 emissions in 2019, compared with 15% from the U.S.

SOURCES: IMF; BOSTON CONSULTING GROUP; U.S. ENERGY INFORMATION ADMINISTRATION